Thursday 16 February 2017 15:18, UK
After a heavy defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League and with the club well adrift in the race for the Premier League title, the case for continuity at Arsenal is diminishing by the day under Arsene Wenger, writes Adam Bate.
"In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." - Harry Lime, The Third Man (1949)
In the world of English football, it's Arsenal who are the model of stability. Under Arsene Wenger, the club has spent the last 20 seasons securely positioned among the country's top four teams. No other club has even managed seven. But it is 13 years since Arsenal were Premier League champions and the case for continuity weakens with every passing year.
Certainly, the Champions League offers no respite for Wenger. Their 5-1 first-leg defeat to Bayern Munich leaves Arsenal on the brink of a seventh consecutive exit in the first knockout stage of the competition. Even the identity of their conquerors is predictable now. In Europe as at home, the biggest trophies look set to elude Arsenal once again.
There is little sign of change. Arsenal are 10 points adrift of leaders Chelsea and while Wenger's familiar lament about financial doping might explain that away, for the third season in four the Gunners are at risk of finishing below a team with a smaller budget than them. For the first time in the Frenchman's reign, that team could even be Tottenham.
Still the debate rages. Is it finally time for Wenger, 68 in October, to walk away or even be pushed from his highly-paid position? Some say Arsenal will never win another title while he is at the helm. Others argue that those supporters seeking change should be careful what they wish for. It's an all too familiar dance that drains those on both sides of the floor.
Manchester United's struggle to make the transition to life without Sir Alex Ferguson could make Arsenal's powerbrokers more cautious. They appear unwilling to push the button while the Champions League revenue rolls in. But there is another way of viewing the situation. Why is the example of Chelsea not more instructive than that of Manchester United?
If Antonio Conte delivers the Premier League title this season, it will be Chelsea's fifth since Arsenal last won it. That will have been achieved by three different managers in four different spells. Another two coaches, both of them employed on an interim basis, helped deliver the Champions League and the Europa League wins in back-to-back years.
Not everyone will be comfortable with the notion of Roman Abramovich as a role model but that does not mean there are not lessons to be learned from a club that has not allowed the overhaul of key figures to get in the way of their ambitions. Jamie Carragher reluctantly admitted as much when addressing the point on Super Sunday recently.
That was never good enough when that man first came and I don't know why it's good enough now. It shouldn't be good enough.
"There are things I love about Arsenal Football Club and there are things I don't particularly like about Chelsea," Carragher told Sky Sports. "But I think there's a ruthlessness at Chelsea than runs right through the club that says: 'We don't accept second best'. And I think for Arsene Wenger to continually say top four is good enough, I think it goes right through the club.
"Even onto the pitch where you think the players are thinking that it doesn't matter if they don't win the title because we will probably get top four and top four is good enough for us. That was never good enough when that man first came and I don't know why it's good enough now. It shouldn't be good enough."
It's an old line about aiming for the stars in the hope of reaching the sky but Arsenal's slipping standards risk sending them crashing down to earth. When top four becomes the target rather than the consolation, there is less room for error and the consequence of that mistake can be rather bigger than an upset Alexis Sanchez.
Could the tipping point soon be upon us? Are Arsenal sleepwalking their way to a time when that top-four finish is not achieved and the debate requires reframing? Because if the biggest argument for retaining Wenger right now is stability and security - the supposed guarantee of Champions League qualification - then what does he offer without it?
Certainly not the security that Ferguson's presence afforded. And so the conundrum of whether to take a risk is no longer a conundrum at all. The first part of finding a cure is admitting there is a problem and while Arsenal are in the top four those in the boardroom see no problem. But a fifth-place finish changes that and forces a new way of thinking.
For if Arsenal are to drop out then the direction of travel is only one way. It is no longer a question of whether Wenger is a problem but whether he is the answer. That becomes an uncomfortable one once the case for change is compelling. The time for Switzerland and cuckoo clocks could soon be over. Maybe the day for Arsenal's renaissance is almost here.
